Decline in Mexican Rail Traffic to the U.S. Amid Regional Weakness: AAR Report (Week Ending Aug. 16, 2025)

Decline in Mexican Rail Traffic to the U.S. Signals Ongoing Challenges

August 16, 2025 – Mexican railroads are experiencing a significant downturn in traffic to the United States, with recent data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) revealing a sharp decline for the week ending August 16. Weekly carloads plummeted by 22.8% to 11,687, while intermodal units fell by 23.3% to 10,123 compared to the same week in 2024.

This downturn is part of a broader trend, as cumulative rail traffic from Mexico for the first 33 weeks of 2025 stands at 763,186 carloads and intermodal units, reflecting an 8.9% year-over-year decrease. These figures underscore the persistent challenges facing the Mexican rail sector, contrasting sharply with the relatively stable performances seen in the United States and Canada.

U.S. Rail Traffic Shows Mixed Results

In the United States, total weekly rail traffic reached 512,970 carloads and intermodal units, marking a slight decline of 0.7% from the same period last year. Carloads totaled 228,884, down 0.9%, while intermodal volume dipped 0.6% to 284,086 containers and trailers.

Commodity trends in the U.S. were mixed. Notably, coal shipments increased by 1,807 carloads to 63,878, and forest products gained 181 carloads to reach 8,236. However, losses were observed in miscellaneous carloads (down 1,236 to 7,881), metallic ores and metals (down 940 to 19,559), and grain (down 665 to 20,981).

Despite the weekly dip, cumulative U.S. rail performance remains positive. Railroads moved 7.28 million carloads (up 2.7%) and 8.9 million intermodal units (up 4.4%) in the first 33 weeks of 2025, resulting in a combined traffic total of 16.19 million units—a 3.6% year-over-year increase.

Canadian Railroads Experience Mixed Fortunes

Meanwhile, Canadian railroads reported 79,619 carloads for the week, an 8.1% year-over-year drop, while intermodal units rose by 3.6% to 71,459. Year-to-date, Canadian railroads have handled 5.35 million units, reflecting a 1.5% increase from 2024.

North America’s Rail Traffic Overview

Across North America, railroads moved a total of 685,858 carloads and intermodal units for the week, down 2.1% from last year. Carloads fell 3.8% to 320,190, while intermodal volume slipped 0.6% to 365,668.

Cumulatively, North American rail traffic totaled 22.29 million units for the first 33 weeks of 2025, marking a 2.6% increase compared to the same period last year.

As the rail industry navigates these fluctuations, the stark contrast between the performance of Mexican railroads and their North American counterparts raises questions about the future of rail transport in the region. Stakeholders are closely monitoring these trends as they seek solutions to bolster the Mexican rail sector and enhance cross-border trade.