Declining Support: How Latino Voters Are Shifting Away from Trump Ahead of the 2026 Midterms
Republicans Face Declining Support Among Latino Voters Post-Trump Re-election
A year after President Donald Trump’s re-election, recent election results and polling indicate a troubling trend for the Republican Party: a significant erosion of support among Latino voters. This shift could have profound implications as the nation gears up for the midterm elections.
In the 2024 election, Trump made notable strides with Latino voters, losing this demographic by only 5 points nationally—an improvement from the 38 and 33-point deficits he faced in 2016 and 2020, respectively, according to CNN’s exit poll. However, the optimism that many Latinos felt entering Trump’s second term appears to be waning.
Economic Concerns Drive Discontent
Latino voters, more than any other racial or ethnic group, identified the economy as their primary concern, with many describing inflation as a severe hardship. CNN’s exit poll revealed that a staggering 81% of Latino voters rated economic conditions as somewhat or very poor, and 75% believed Trump’s policies had worsened their financial situation.
Despite initial approval ratings—over half of Latino voters expressed optimism about Trump’s handling of the presidential transition—his current approval among this group has plummeted to just 20%, a dramatic 21-point drop since February. This decline is stark compared to the smaller drops seen among Black and White Americans.
Shifting Political Landscape
As economic discontent grows, so does the Republican Party’s favorability among Latino voters. The party’s rating has dropped from 26% to 16% since March, while the Democratic Party’s rating has remained relatively stable. By late summer, Latinos favored Democrats over Republicans by a 10-point margin on economic issues.
In the recent elections, Latino voters overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates, such as Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, by at least a 2-to-1 margin. They also backed a Democratic-supported redistricting measure in California by a significant 71% to 29%.
Defections from Trump
Interestingly, even some Latino voters who previously supported Trump are now defecting. Among those who voted in the November 2025 elections, 24% of Latino Trump supporters in California backed the Democratic-supported ballot measure, and 18% supported Sherrill in New Jersey. This defection rate is notably higher than the overall electorate’s, indicating a growing disillusionment with the Republican Party.
Looking Ahead to the Midterms
As the 2026 midterms approach, early polling suggests Democrats are gaining ground among Latino voters. A CNN poll found that 64% of Latino registered voters prefer a Democratic congressional candidate, while only 19% would consider a Republican. This trend is echoed in a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, which showed 52% of Latino voters favoring a Democratic candidate.
In response to these developments, White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson emphasized Trump’s historic support from Latino voters and his commitment to fulfilling promises on the economy and immigration. However, the growing discontent among this crucial demographic could pose significant challenges for the Republican Party in the upcoming elections.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, both parties will need to address the concerns of Latino voters to secure their support in the future.
